OECD Downgrades UK Growth Forecast, Citing Debt and Trade Barriers

Contact us

The UK’s economic growth is set to slow more than expected, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), which has downgraded its forecast for 2025 to 1.3%, down from 1.4% earlier this year.


The global think tank pointed to high government debt interest payments and new trade barriers - particularly from the US - as key reasons for the cut. It also warned that the UK’s public finances leave little room for surprises, urging Chancellor Rachel Reeves to consider a mix of targeted spending cuts and tax reforms to shore up the economy.


While the OECD acknowledged that growth in early 2025 had been better than expected, it said business confidence is now weakening and predicted further slowing to 1% growth in 2026. The state of the UK’s finances, it said, poses a real risk if fiscal rules are to be met.


Different to the IMF


To place their comments in context, the OECD’s growth forecast is still higher than the 1.2% estimated by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported on last week. For the IMF, this was an uplift on their previous forecast.


What’s next?


The timing of the OECD’s warning comes just ahead of Reeves’ upcoming Spending Review, where she’ll be tasked with deciding how to allocate funds between government departments.


It’s not just the UK


Due to trade tensions having a global effect, the OECD also downgraded growth forecasts for most major economies. It noted that the global economy is slowing and warned that “weakened economic prospects will be felt around the world, with almost no exception.”


While national growth forecasts can influence general outlook, they don’t have to define your business’s future. If you're looking for practical ways to keep your business moving forward in uncertain times, get in touch - we're here to help you explore the options and make confident decisions.


See: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq69j753egeo

July 31, 2025
Revived Pensions Commission Aims to Secure Better Retirements

The government has announced the revival of the Pensions Commission, twenty years after it helped bring in automatic enrolment. Its goal is to stop future pensioners from being worse off than those retiring today.

Read article
July 30, 2025
Government Borrowing Jumps – Are Tax Rises on the Way This Autumn?

UK government borrowing was £20.7 billion for June, according to new figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) - an increase of £6.6 billion compared to the same month last year.

Read article